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民主党議員の質問の中に「小選挙区では法案に反対している候補の得票の方が多かった。比例区では自公の方が多かったとはいえ、決して国民は法案に手放しで賛成しているわけではない」というのがあったので、総務省のサイトで比例区を集計してみました。
http://www.soumu.go.jp/senkyo/h17sousenkyo.htm

賛成派（自公）　　　34,875,418
反対派（それ以外）　32,935,651

小選挙区と合算しても、百万票くらい賛成派候補の得票の方が多かったです。

よって私は前言を撤回します。やはり本法案を通すというのが民意だと考えます。

閑話休題。
件の民主党議員はマスコミの印象操作と違って、「民営化反対派」とは語らず、きちんと「民営化法案（与党案）反対派）」としていました。この辺はさすが議員様だと感じたしだい。

Posted by: ric | 2005.10.07 12:51

http://gendai.net/contents.asp?c=010&id=16845
http://www.janjan.jp/government/0509/0509142447/1.php

この辺もですね。「郵政民営化反対派」だったら、ぐっと少なくなるはずなのに。野田聖子や小林興起も「民営化自体には反対しない(この法案には反対）」だったんだけど。

私ごときbloggerに指摘される程度の知能なのか、単に悪意をもって間違っているのか…

Posted by: ric | 2005.09.27 02:02

それにしても天声珍語は酷いですね。「郵政民営化」と「郵政民営化法案」の区別もつかないのだろうか？

Posted by: ric | 2005.09.27 01:55

お待たせしました！
賛成(自公)　　　　33,694,611票
反対(非自公)　　　34,341,055票
神奈川８区の松沢氏など、選挙当時から法案賛成の無所属を賛成に含めていますので、天声珍語の概算よりもちょっと縮まっていますが、多少の計算ミスではひっくり返せないくらいの差があります。

よって、民意は「郵政民営化法案(与党案)」はNoとでました。反対派はこの結果をもってもっと強く出てもいいところ。先に書いたように、議員側は言い辛いだろうから、マスコミがもっと騒ぐべきでしょう。

Posted by: ric | 2005.09.27 00:34

今日の朝日新聞の天声人語にも載ってました。

自民公明　3350万
それ以外　3450万

よって、本案を否決する。

Posted by: 知蔵 | 2005.09.26 12:20

続けて北から200選挙区を集計しました。
賛成(自公)　　　　23,309,063票
反対(非自公)　　　23,867,564票
民主王国の愛知は意外と差がついていなかったですね。京都は童話の人がまだ影響力があるのと、昔から共産党が強い場所なので、ほとんどダブルスコアです。自公は小池百合子のように圧勝していても、反対派を集めると僅差という場合がほとんど。高知・沖縄を残しているので、反対派がこのまま逃げ切りそうな感じですね。

Posted by: ric | 2005.09.22 00:30

私の記憶では「僅差」ということは確かなんですが、どっちがどうだったかは…　ということで、集計しております。

さすがに野党議員諸氏は議会制民主主義の根幹に関わることなので、「総選挙を国民投票に模した首相の論法を踏襲するなら、法案は否決された」とは主張できないでしょう。となると、マスコミから声が上がってもよさそうなものですが、今のところはそれもない。

そして直後の世論調査では賛成派がダブルスコア？　世論調査はマスコミがいかようにも捏造できますし、そもそも民主党も「自公の民営化法案」に反対なだけで、「民営化」には賛成ですから、世論調査の質問の仕方にもよると思います。私だって「自公の民営化法案に賛成か？　YesかNoで応えよ」という問いだったら「No」って応えますしね（笑）。

結局、政界もマスコミもついでにいえば経済界も郵政民営化には賛成で、細かいツメの部分で意見が分かれているってことかな、と。そういった意味ではやっぱり「国民不在」なのかもしれませんね。まぁ「国民不在」が絶対的な悪かどうかは判断できませんが。

一応集計が終わってから、本エントリーに追記しておきます。

Posted by: ric | 2005.09.21 13:37

お疲れさまです。

テレビ朝日のお昼の番組で、コメンテータの方が「今回の小選挙区の得票数を単純に足して行くと、自民公明よりもそれ以外の方が多いんですよ」と言っていたので、それなら比例区を、と思って計算した訳です。だから、小選挙区もそうなってると思いますよ。

でも、選挙後の世論調査では、郵政民営化に賛成する声の方がダブルスコアくらいで多いようですね(^_^;。

Posted by: 知蔵 | 2005.09.21 11:20

とりあえず北から100選挙区を集計しました。
賛成(自公)　　　　11,997,323票
反対(非自公)　　　11,499,973票
民主王国の北海道と岩手、自民王国の群馬と栃木を含めているので、結構いい勝負になっていますね。小泉の神奈川も含めている分、賛成がやや多くなっています。もう一つの民主王国の愛知が未カウント、非自民の色合いが濃い京都・高知・沖縄も未カウント、造反議員が多いのも西日本なんで、反対票が伸びそうですね。比例区の差３百50万票をまくるのはきつそうですね。

明日はもう100選挙区を集計してみます。

Posted by: ric | 2005.09.21 00:08

いやいや、日本人の場合「小選挙区は○党に、比例は×党に」というバランス派が多いので、小選挙区も集計しないといけないのでは？　ひっくり返るかもしれないし、差が広がるかもしれません。

とにかく少なくとも「与党の圧勝」ではありません。小選挙区制を進めた小沢が現在所属する民主党が惨敗で、中選挙区制維持を謳っていた小泉率いる自民党が圧勝というのはアレですが…

帰宅してから入力してみます。私自身、結構興味ありますし。で、民主党も漸次民営化派ですが、今回の集計は対立軸がわかりやすくなるように、「与党案にYesかNoか」でやってみます。

Posted by: ric | 2005.09.20 19:37

小選挙区（300！）の集計はようしませんが、比例区はエクセルで集計しました。

賛成（自公）　　　34,875,418票
反対（非自公）　38,398,730票
よって、本案を否決します。

Posted by: 知蔵 | 2005.09.20 17:11

お世話様です＞知蔵さん。

実際に選管発表にあたったわけではないのですが、確かに微妙な差だったことは記憶しています。帰宅したら詳しく調べてみます。

さすがに反対派が異を唱えるのは小選挙区の是非を問うことにもなるのでありえませんが、野党は声を大にして言えるんですがね。民主党は「政権交代は小選挙区のほうがベター」と考えているでしょうから無理でも、社民や共産、国民新党や新党「日本」は「反対派のほうが多い」と主張できるはず。ついでにマスコミも…

それだけの材料がありながら使わないとなると、実は消費税と同じで誰もが民営化に賛成なのに、自民と対立しないと存在意義をなくすから反対していたのかな、なんて思っちゃいますね。

Posted by: ric | 2005.09.20 15:01

いや、しかし、今回の選挙、単純に「自民公明」と「それ以外」で票を集計すると、その他の方が少し多いんですよ。だから、国民投票なら否決なんですよ〜、郵政民営化法案は。以上から、国民不在。誰か、政治家でこの説を言ってくれないかなあ。

Posted by: 知蔵 | 2005.09.20 10:08