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2005.08.20

世論調査と落下傘候補

政界再編「望む」8割 郵政民営化支持63% 本社・FNN世論調査

「投票に行く」についてなんか物凄く極端な数字をはじき出しているようだけど、ホンマかいな?

FNNに限らず、世論調査での内閣支持率は軒並み上がっていることは確からしい。私は漠然と「話し合い型ではない、強いリーダーを求めているのかなぁ」程度にしか考えていなかったけど、「閉塞感打破への期待」という見方は説得力あるなぁ。

野党が喧伝している「政と官の癒着」「政と大企業の癒着」に失望した有権者の受け皿として、旧社会党や民主党があったけど、今回の郵政解散で「小泉内閣は官を切ろうとしており、反対派を潰そうとさえしている」というイメージ付け(あくまでもイメージ付け)に成功した、と。逆に民主党は朝日以外全て(笑)の全国紙の社説に「労組と癒着していて、改革方針を打ち出せない」と批判された。

私を含め、郵便局を民営化したときに起こるメリットとデメリットをはっきりと理解している有権者なんて少ないはずだけど、「何かを変えないとはじまらない」という危機感だけは強い。それが最近の世論調査の数字になっているんじゃないのかな、と。


争点の中で最も重要な位置を占めるのが郵政民営化であることは間違いない。そこで、自民党執行部は「刺客」として落下傘候補を立てているわけだ。実は私はこの落下傘候補の当落に関心を持っている。日本の(日本以外もそうかもしれないが)選挙なんてものは、基本的に「オラが村のセンセイを男にするぞ」という類のものだ。候補者も地域利益誘導型公約を掲げる。しかし落下傘候補には「オラが村」の論理は通用しない。地域利益誘導型公約もほとんどないだろう。党中央から「この候補を応援しなさい」とあてがわれた候補を県連や支部がすんなり受け入れるのか。そして有権者はどれだけ投票するのか。ある意味、有権者の国政意識のバロメーターになりそう。

個人的予想では、首都圏以外では都市部も郡部も全滅。まだまだ「オラが村」の論理は生き続ける。具体例を挙げれば、ウチの選挙区に来る某大臣が民主党に小選挙区で僅差で負けるも惜敗率で比例区で復活当選。某元財務省官僚・某料理評論家などは反対派と共倒れで民主党候補に(比例区復活もなし)。某弁護士と某元議員はそこそこ戦えると思うけど(あ、某元議員は地元からの出馬で落下傘候補じゃないか)、民主党に勝てるか否か… まぁきついと思うけどね。「その心意気、買ってやるぜ!」的な発想はやっぱり、江戸っ子限定かなぁ、と。

落下傘候補は、そもそも自民党首脳も「議席を獲ってくれる」という期待はほとんどないと思う。それこそ地方の国政意識の試験薬くらいにしか考えていないのでは? 某元財務省官僚をに関しては、森派の城内前議員にとって一番与し易い相手だと思うんだよね。彼女の知名度って、「舛添要一元夫人」「主計官として防衛費に大鉈」「国防に関して無知披露」くらいなもんで… 城内前議員は官僚出身だから「一番やっかいな相手」なんて敬意を表しているけど、最終的には彼女には圧勝しているはず。ただ保守票は食われるから民主党候補が当選だと思うんだけどね。

保守だけど小泉政権に否定的な文春は早速「落下傘候補で当選は一人だけ」、漫画で少年をリベラルに引き込む役割を担う講談社・週刊現代は「首相と某大臣のロマンス」を報じて、イメージ潰しに躍起になっている。投票日が迫れば、こういった攻撃は増すはずで、その中でどれだけ戦えるのか。まぁそういうことですな。

しかしウチの選挙区は某大臣だからよかったけど、某元財務省官僚や某料理研究家だったら小選挙区はパスしていたな(笑)。落下傘候補に注視している私がこれなんだから、しょせん日本の選挙ってのはそのレベルなのさ(爆)。

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